Feb 2026 Housing Market Stats - Are We Seeing The Floor?

Hi All

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) resale housing market experienced a tightening of conditions in February 2026, with key metrics trending downward across the board.

Summary of the February 2026 Market Watch Report:

• Sales Activity: There were 3,868 home sales reported, representing a 6.3% decrease compared to February 2025.

• Supply: New listings fell sharply by 17.7% year-over-year to 10,705. On a seasonally adjusted basis, new listings also declined month-over-month at a faster rate than sales.

• Prices: The average selling price dropped by 7.1% year-over-year to $1,008,968, and the MLS Home Price Index (HPI) Composite benchmark fell by 7.9%. Prices were also down month-over-month compared to January 2026.

Reasons for the Downturn: According to the report, the sluggish market is being driven by hesitancy from both buyers and sellers:

• Buyer Cautiousness: Many would-be homebuyers are actively waiting for selling prices to fully level off before they decide to move into the market.

• Trade Uncertainty: Buyers are also holding off on major purchases until they see positive news on the trade front.

• Seller Reluctance: The notable dip in new inventory aligns with recent Ipsos polling, which shows that homeowners' intentions to list their properties are down for the year.

Three Potential Reasons for Optimism in 2026: Despite the slow figures in February, there are several indicators that market conditions could improve later in the year:

1. Massive Pent-Up Demand: There is a backlog of more than 100,000 buyers in the GTA currently holding off on making a purchase. Once prices level out and economic news improves, this pent-up demand could create substantial sales momentum in the second half of 2026 and into 2027. Furthermore, if new listings stay low through the spring, competition between these waiting buyers will increase, which would support home prices and trigger a sales recovery.

2. Falling Inflation and Better Mortgage Rates: Canada’s inflation rate successfully edged down to 2.3% in January, nearing the Bank of Canada’s 2% target on a broader basis. This encouraging economic data has caused bond yields to soften, which creates improving conditions that could put downward pressure on fixed mortgage rates.

3. Cooling Rental Markets Boosting Buyer Savings: After years of nonstop increases, asking rents in Canada have declined for 16 consecutive months. Lower rents are giving tenants the financial "breathing room" to rebuild their purchasing power and save money, which real estate professionals believe will create a much healthier pipeline of future buyers transitioning from renting to homeownership.

Bank Of Canada Rate Announcement Dates

In February 2026, we can see that the detached housing chart indicates that the median transaction price remained relatively stable, hovering just below the $800,000 mark. At the same time, the number of active listings showed an upward trajectory from its recent winter dip, rising to approximately 22,000 to 23,000 available homes. The transaction volume continues to be slow, lingering near the bottom of the chart's historical range at roughly 4,000 to 5,000 sales for the month,

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