Dec 2025 Housing Stats: End Of The Slide?

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) has released its December 2025 statistics, capping off a year of significant adjustment for the Greater Toronto Area housing market. The latest data reflects a cooling trend in both transaction activity and pricing compared to the previous year.

Key December 2025 and Year-End Statistics:

Several factors contributed to this cooling of activity throughout 2025:

• Pervasive Economic Uncertainty: TRREB notes that households were hesitant to commit to long-term mortgage payments until they felt more confident that the economy and labour market were on a solid footing.

• Trade and Policy Headwinds: Trade uncertainty and a focus on domestic economic development led many prospective buyers to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach.

• Elevated Inventory Levels: The rise in available listings provided buyers with significant negotiating room, allowing for selling prices to be pushed lower throughout the year.

• Record Population Decline: Canada recorded its largest quarterly population decline on record in the third quarter of 2025, losing 76,000 people primarily due to a record exodus of 176,000 non-permanent residents.

Looking ahead to 2026, there are compelling reasons to expect a market recovery:

• Enhanced Affordability: The combination of lower average selling prices and a downward trend in mortgage rates during late 2025 has improved overall affordability.

• Release of Pent-Up Demand: TRREB suggests that substantial demand remains on the sidelines and will likely return to the market once consumer confidence in the economy is restored.

• Growing Supply Shortage: Housing starts and building permits have seen a marked decline, including a 99.9% year-over-year drop in GTA condo starts for November 2025, setting the stage for a structural supply shortage in the future.

• Resilient Permanent Resident Demand: While the departure of non-permanent residents impacts the rental market, net permanent resident inflows remain consistent, ensuring steady long-term demand for home ownership.

Bank Of Canada Rate Announcement DatesJanuary

Jan 28

Mar 18

Apr 29

Jun 10

Jul 15

Sep 2

Oct 28

Dec 9

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